Senior Director, Commercial Insights & BD Forecasting

At Lilly, we unite caring with discovery to make life better for people around the world. We are a global healthcare leader headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. Our employees around the world work to discover and bring life-changing medicines to those who need them, improve the understanding and management of disease, and give back to our communities through philanthropy and volunteerism. We give our best effort to our work, and we put people first. We’re looking for people who are determined to make life better for people around the world.Senior Director, Business Development Forecasting & AnalyticsCorporate Business Development | Reports to VP, Corporate Development and BD StrategyThe Role:This is not a forecast-maintenance role. We're looking for someone who builds conviction — who can walk into an unfamiliar therapeutic area, do the primary work, and produce a commercially defensible point of view where little internal precedent exists. You'll be the person in the room who has done the work and can stand behind it.Reporting to the VP of Corporate Development and BD Strategy, you'll lead end-to-end commercial assessment for licensing, acquisition, and partnership opportunities across markets new or adjacent to Lilly's current portfolio — and build the forecasting infrastructure that raises the quality of BD analytics across the organization.White Space Assessment & Market IntelligenceLead commercial assessments from early landscape scoping through full deal-stage forecasting, with a clear and defensible POV at each stageRapidly develop substantive expertise in unfamiliar therapeutic areas — synthesizing epidemiology, treatment algorithms, competitive dynamics, payer landscapes, and emerging clinical dataProactively size white space opportunities before formal deal processes begin; track signals across pipelines, regulatory trends, and payer policy to anticipate where markets are headingMarket Research LeadershipDesign and lead primary research programs (qualitative and quantitative) with physicians, payers, patients, and channel partners — especially where secondary data is thinCommission and critically evaluate third-party research; translate external deliverables into actionable commercial insightBuild Lilly's institutional knowledge base in new markets through documented findings, assumptions, and forecast rationale that persist beyond individual dealsForecasting Model DevelopmentBuild flexible, reusable forecasting models with modular architecture, shared assumptions, and clear documentationDeploy approaches suited to data-scarce environments: analogue models, epidemiology-driven patient flow frameworks, expert elicitation, and scenario treesModel the full commercial picture — uptake trajectories, competitive erosion, pricing and access assumptions, channel dynamics, lifecycle scenarios, and risk-adjusted probability of successGo-to-Market & Channel StrategyEvaluate innovative commercial approaches — outcomes-based contracting, risk-sharing structures, novel launch sequencing — and assess their viability in new market entriesAnalyze channel architecture trade-offs (specialty pharmacy, buy-and-bill, direct-to-patient, GPO/IDN) and their impact on revenue, access, and deal valuationBD Partnership & Executive InfluenceServe as the commercial analytics partner to BD leadership from initial screening through due diligence, term sheet development, and integration planningPresent forecasts to senior executives with the confidence to defend assumptions, acknowledge uncertainty honestly, and make clear recommendations — not just rangesEngage directly with external counterparties and advisors during diligence, representing Lilly's commercial perspective with authorityMinimum Qualifications:Bachelor's or advanced degree in a scientific field10+ years in pharmaceutical or biotech commercial strategy, BD analytics, market research, or strategic forecastingPreferred Qualifications:Master’s degreeMeaningful exposure beyond a single therapeutic areaDemonstrated track record building commercial conviction in new or ambiguous markets — not just maintaining existing forecastsExperience leading primary market research: study design, vendor management, and synthesis into commercial recommendationsStrong financial modeling skills: bottoms-up and epidemiology-based revenue forecasting, DCF/rNPV analysis, sensitivity and scenario modelingDeep understanding of how pharmaceutical markets work: treatment paradigm dynamics, prescriber behavior, payer decision-making, launch benchmarks, competitive responseFamiliarity with innovative go-to-market models (value-based agreements, outcomes-based contracting, digital-first launch) and pharmaceutical channel architectureConfident communicator who can present a supported commercial view to senior leadership and stand behind itStrategy consulting or life sciences investment banking background; experience with RWE/HEOR; knowledge of FDA/EMA regulatory pathways; prior work building fo